ROTIMI ASHER
Nigeria’s economy is showing signs of gathering momentum, with the World Bank projecting growth to average about 4.4% annually through 2028 if reforms are sustained and economic gains translate into better public services.
The outlook comes after Nigeria recorded 4.2% growth in the first half of 2026, up from 3.9% in 2025, with services and agriculture driving much of the expansion.
The World Bank said reforms including the removal of petrol subsidies and exchange-rate changes have strengthened government revenues, giving states greater room to increase spending on infrastructure, healthcare and education.
State revenues rose by about 93% in real terms between 2023 and 2025, according to the lender, but it warned that stronger revenues must be matched by more efficient spending and greater investment in human capital.
Inflation is also expected to ease, falling towards 12% by 2028 from around 15%, provided the reform momentum continues.
Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele said the reforms had helped stabilize the economy and put Nigeria on a path towards faster growth, arguing that economic expansion above population growth could eventually help reduce poverty.
The World Bank, however, cautioned that stronger growth alone will not be enough. It said Nigeria needs faster, broader-based expansion, better service delivery and more job creation to turn economic gains into improved living standards.
The lender’s latest outlook comes as it continues to identify reform momentum, inflation, climate shocks, elections and security conditions among the key risks to Nigeria’s economic prospects.
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