South Africa’s new vehicle market has kicked off 2026 with fresh momentum, breaking through the symbolic 50,000-unit mark and signalling that the industry’s recovery has matured into something far more durable.
According to naamsa | the Automotive Business Council, total new vehicle sales reached 50,073 units in January, representing a 7.5% increase year-on-year.
While this growth is slower than the 10.4% surge recorded in January 2025, industry watchers say the numbers point to consolidation rather than a loss of steam.
A three-year view tells the real story. Sales climbed from 42,023 units in January 2024 to 46,398 units in January 2025, before pushing past 50,000 units in January 2026, a level now becoming the norm rather than the exception.
“January 2024 was defined by restraint, January 2025 by recovery and January 2026 by consolidation,” said Lebo Gaoaketse, Head of Marketing and Communication at WesBank. “What we’re seeing now is a market that has stabilised, not overheated.”
Passenger car sales grew 7.1% to 37,190 units, easing from the previous year’s rental-driven rebound. Light commercial vehicles delivered a stronger performance, rising 11% to 10,996 units and reversing a decline recorded a year earlier. In contrast, medium commercial vehicles fell 5.9%, while heavy trucks and buses slipped 4.3%, reflecting continued caution around infrastructure spending.
The resilience of the market is being supported by stable macroeconomic conditions. Inflation remains within the Reserve Bank’s target range, long-term expectations are at multi-year lows, and the repo rate held steady at 6.75% in January, with potential cuts on the horizon.
“A stable or stronger rand and competitive imports should help contain vehicle prices,” Gaoaketse noted, adding that this combination gives consumers more choice across segments.
However, the outlook is not without risks. Attention is intensifying around government’s automotive policy review, particularly decisions on tariffs and localisation incentives. While a firmer rand and import competition may ease pricing pressures, policy outcomes will shape the sector’s trajectory in the months ahead.
Encouragingly, expanded local production announcements and renewed support for domestic manufacturing are providing longer-term confidence, especially as global OEMs reassess their production footprints amid shifting trade dynamics.
“The market is well positioned for 2026, but important decisions lie ahead,” Gaoaketse said. “Balancing consumer affordability with the needs of local manufacturing will be a fine line for policymakers to walk.”
January’s performance suggests the momentum is real, not a temporary spike. As South Africa’s auto market settles into 2026 on solid footing, sustained growth will hinge on getting the policy balance right while keeping the showroom doors open to buyers.
