China’s stalled car sales risk flooding Nigeria with cheap imports. Policy action now will determine whether local assembly survives
MATILDA OWOEYE
China’s auto market has hit a wall. Unless policy makers act decisively, Nigeria risks paying the price. As domestic demand stalls and price wars intensify in the world’s largest car market, Chinese automakers are under growing pressure to export excess vehicles.
For Nigeria, a nation heavily reliant on Chinese brands, the outcome could either strengthen industrialization or hollow out local assembly.
The threat is real. Nigeria’s auto sector has repeatedly faced surges of imported Chinese cars when manufacturers sought to offload excess inventory. With China’s domestic growth slowing, aggressive in 2026, pricing of fully built units could undercut SKD/CKD assembly plants, weaken local supplier development, and reduce Nigeria’s automotive ambitions to little more than showroom activity.
Though plans to set up an EV assembly plant in Nigeria once the brand gains popularity and demand increases, BYD, largely an importer, is likely to, in the meantime, focus on corporate fleets and government buyers rather than mass consumer adoption. Without firm localization requirements, BYD’s presence risks remaining transactional, that is vehicles in, technology out.
Chery, locally assembled in Nigeria, must deepen local content rather than rely on imported kits. The Chinese slowdown could pressure factories to export cheaply, making oversight critical.
Changan, Geely, and GAC, also assembled locally, contribute to industrialization. But the slowdown in China raises stakes. These brands may face pressure to ramp up output to meet global targets, potentially prioritizing volume over local supplier development if Nigeria’s policies are weak. Policymakers must enforce NAIDP targets: local content, supplier growth, and export readiness.
Other Nigerian brands, including Saglev, Innoson, Jetour, and Nods, could also feel the impact. While primarily domestically assembled, these manufacturers compete in the same segments as Chinese imports – affordable ICE and hybrid vehicles. A flood of cheap fully built units could compress margins, undermine pricing strategies, and slow plans for local supply chain expansion. For these brands, maintaining competitiveness depends on consistent enforcement of tariffs, import limits, and incentives tied to local production.
Policy inconsistency remains the core problem. Nigeria promises value addition, jobs, and technology transfer, but enforcement is uneven. Customs leakages, waivers, and weak monitoring of CKD compliance have eroded confidence. A surge of low-priced imports could expose these weaknesses brutally, threatening both foreign and homegrown manufacturers.
It is, therefore, time for the Nigerian government to act decisively. The country needs a car industry, not just more cars. To achieve this, the country requires:
- Strict enforcement of tariffs and import rules to prevent fully built units from undermining local assembly.
- Clear localisation milestones for all OEMs (volume commitments, CKD timelines, and supplier development).
- Performance-based incentives, especially for EV and hybrid assembly and
- Regional export planning, positioning Nigeria as a West African production hub rather than a consumption market.
Editorial Director, Motoring World Intl.
The EV story also demands realism. China’s EV export momentum is cooling, and Nigeria lacks mass adoption infrastructure. Plug-in hybrids and fuel-efficient ICE vehicles remain the pragmatic bridge, with EV imports limited to fleets and pilots.
Nigeria stands at a crossroads. China’s auto slowdown could either turn the country into a dumping ground or give Abuja leverage to demand deeper industrial commitment. Failure to act risks collapsing assembly lines, frustrated investors and another lost decade for automotive manufacturing.
The wall China has hit does not have to bring Nigeria down with it, but only if policymakers enforce rules, demand localization, and plan strategically.
©Copyright MOTORING WORLD INTERNATIONAL
All rights reserved. Materials, photographs, illustrations and other digital content on this website, may not be reproduced, published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed in whole or in part without prior written permission from Motoring World International
Contact: editor.motoringworldng@gmail.com
